The Eurasian Economic Union : Migration Risks

The phenomenon of contemporary migration is seen as a socio-economic and political phenomenon, with multinational and global in nature, contributing to the process of international division of labour complex structural changes and global transformation. Risks of migration processes in the framework of the Eurasian economic Union (EEU) are studied from the point of view of three of the participants: migrants, countries of disposal and countries of arrival. Exploring the process of a single labour market in the conditions of the Eurasian space within the EEU guaranteed by the EEU Treaty and representing the form and manner of integration of the Russian Federation, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. The question is raised about adequate migration policy, is necessary not only to minimize due to migration risks, but also to use the positive potential of migration for development of the Russian state. Analyzed the risk factors associated with the movement of the labour market. The question about the necessity of in-depth scientific analysis of the socio-cultural risks the formation of a single market labor EAEC, the development of rapid and long-term measures to prevent and neutralize internal and external threats. It is proposed to consider a single labour market as one of the main sources of innovation development and competitive advantages of the EEU, the expansion of ethnic and cultural diversity of the countries-participants of the EEU


Introduction 1.
At the present stage of globalization, more and more exchange of human capital at the international level.The main components of the process of international exchange of human capital is labour migration (immigration, emigration, hidden migration), education abroad (exchanges, internships), exit with therapeutic purpose.Migration processes affect human capital development both positively and negatively, which must be taken into account in the formation of public policy in this area.Intensive development of modern integration processes is the need to strengthen the economic security of the state and development of measures for its maintenance.
The term "migration" is derived from the latin word "migrate, migro" -move, relocation.In the scientific literature and dictionaries, more often occur such explanations of the term: -Relocation, moving, people, ethnic groups, their parts or individual members, is associated with a change of permanent residence or returning to it; -The movement of people across territorial borders or other areas with changing location residence forever or for a long period; -Migration, population movements within the country -internal migration of the population, a single country to another -external migration: emigration, immigration; -The movement of people associated, as a rule, with the change of place of residence; -The movement of people, employees was primarily due to the change of residence and place of work.The most common in the literature is the definition of L. L. Rybakovsky, according to which migration can be called any spatial displacement occurring between the different settlements of one or more administrative-territorial units, regardless of the length, regularity and target orientation (Yudina,2014) In today's world, where almost a billion people (one in seven people on the planet) is a migrant, migration processes are able to increase the human capital of migrants and communities, and their host, and the rest of the house (Selivyorstov , 2010;Vinokurov and Libman, 2012).
Migration can be a positive phenomenon, significantly contribute to the further development of man, but in order to realize their benefits, it must rely on a favorable political implication.Actually, migration can increase the income of the person, to enhance access to health care and education.However, the most important is the ability to decide in its sole discretion, where to live, which is a key element of human rights and freedoms.Reducing barriers and other restrictions can bring significant benefits for human development (which implies health, physical condition, survival, skills, talents, experience, level of education, training and the opportunity to generate income, and so on).

2.
For the analysis of migration risks of the Eurasian economic Union the following methods were used: analysis of regulatory documents, statistical analysis of national statistics of the countries of the former USSR (Kaurova at al., 2013), countries of Eastern partnership and Russia; qualitative analysis of the publications of scientists, specialists and experts dedicated to the raised issue, quantitative survey.
1. Analysis of the current state of research is a scientific problem, study of migration is relevant for foreign and Russian researchers in the last decade, published monographs, articles and analytical reports on the results of applied research on migration processes, containing valuable material for secondary analysis.In the development of migration theory, determining factors, incentives and consequences of its implementation, a special role belongs to the Western scientists-economists, demographers, sociologists and philosophers, such as P. E. Bilsborrow, P. Barlow, J. A. Jackson, D. L. Johnson, H. P. Fairchild, U. In Russian social science has accumulated certain experience of research of the processes of adaptation and integration.But they, as a rule, devoted to the issues of adaptation and integration of IDPs and refugees in the post-Soviet space.Today, many issues of integration and adaptation remain insufficiently developed: still not resolved the fundamental issues of methodological and conceptual in nature, associated with holistic systematic research into the integration of models of different types of immigrants with regard to their ethnicity based on a critical analysis of the social practices abroad.
In the European scientific school in the last decade, there has been a significant breakthrough in research in the field of migration due to the large grant programs of the European Commission, the European integration Fund and the European Fund for refugees, who spend a lot of money on research on integrated models and projects aimed at integration.The main directions of research are developed in the following areas: 1.The asylum (the Netherlands University, Nijmegen, Dr. Kraal), 2. The security of EU borders (International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), Vienna); 3. Issues of labour migration and integration (most EU universities) 4. The issues of human rights and the fight against irregular migrants (CASe Center, Clandestino project).These areas are the main publications in journals and monograph series.For example, the University of Amsterdam together with the IMISCOE network is releasing a special series of textbooks, books on research results (most of the books are available for free on the Internet IMISCOE.org) The most strong in the theoretical plan are the following centers: Oxford University (COMPAS Center and the International Migration Institute); Amsterdam University (center accommodation IMISCOE network on excellent research in migration network of leading experts of the EU in the field of migration); Case Center in Poland (has offices in all the countries of the CIS related to the Eastern Partnership program); Migration Policy Institute in the United States and its offices in Brussels; International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) in Vienna.In addition, research centers are organizations supranational level, the international organization for migration (IOM) (produces World Migration report -has branches in all countries); ILO -international labour organization.In each EU country universities wizard program for the study of migration.There are such programmes in Spain (POMPEUM university), Oxford University and other countries.

Socio-economic risks of migration processes within the EEU: study
In the conditions of formation of the Customs Union, EEU common economic space migration problems acquire new features.These features constitute the unique situation of risk manifesting itself by reason of the risks, conditions, factors, types of risks, risk actors and risk-objects, practices risks" (Fedorova and Horoltseva, 2013).
In modern conditions the migration should be seen not just as a geographical movement of people from one area to another, but as a socio-economic phenomenon that affects all aspects of society (Kryukova at al., 2014).That is why many modern researchers pay attention to multinational and global nature of contemporary migration.For example, according to British scientist Stephen Castles, migration processes have become multinational to a global level, as transnational corporations are exporting their work around the world" (Castles, 1989).
Migration processes are inextricably linked with complex structural changes in the new international division of labour, with global economic changes.First of all, this is manifested in the demands of employers for labour in the information sphere and the sphere of services, while migration flows of the labour force is becoming less and less popular in the sphere of technical production.This is true especially for countries with a developed post-industrial economy.On the other hand, developing countries still need an influx of low-skilled workers who fill the employment niche, little demand by local residents.(Kryukova at al., 2014) Socio-economic risks of migration processes within the EEU can be considered from the point of view of three of the participants: migrants, countries of disposal and the countries of arrival. .(Kryukova at al., 2014) Migratory behavior is determined by the desire of migrants to improve their standard of living.It is possible by the favorable impact of many factors ranging from the situation in the labour market in the country of arrival and ending with personal characteristics and attitudes of migrant.Exacerbates the situation of migrant unstable economic situation in the Eurasian space, as a result of foreign currency fluctuations and reduce the number of jobs in many sectors of the economy, migrant workers are forced to go back and search for work at home.
The country of arrival, along with many positive economic effects from the movement of migration flows, always feel and many of migration risks.Especially this can be felt in the conditions of unstable economic situation.The economic crisis may lead to a significant reduction of expenditures in the social sphere.For many Eurasian countries, find themselves today in a difficult economic situation, the expenses for social needs of migrants and their families will be an intolerable burden.On the other hand the increasing migration outflow may affect the reduction of production speed.
Country disposal experiencing significant socio-economic risks in the case of the departure of skilled workers.Recently, in connection with the tightening of requirements for labour migrants on the territory of the Russian Federation, to obtain a work permit can only those migrants who have a basic knowledge of the Russian language, the history of the country and its legislation.Thus, with increasing requirements to the educational level of migrants should be changed and qualitative composition of migration flows.

Results
Freedom of movement of workers within the EEU will be manifested in labour migration.Let's refer to the data of empirical research and expert assessments, taking into account the complexity of migration, as well as the fact that in 2012 in connection with the creation of the Common economic space of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia and the new rules abolish the licensing of employment of foreigners in the territory of States-members of the Customs Union (CU), labour migrants from Kazakhstan and Belarus

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the publications of scientists and experts
Belarusian experts believe that labour migration from Belarus became one of the key challenges for the Republic.In recent years, according to the Federation of trade unions of Belarus, the Belarusian labour market has experienced two waves of labour migration.The first is in the crisis year 2009, the second problem in 2011 when the footage went whole branches, in the first stage of construction (Andreeva, 2012) According to Russian experts, in Russia employs hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Republic of Belarus in the construction, transport, trade and services and, as a rule, they do not have higher education.Often the work is carried out on a rotational basis.Indirect evidence for the rise of labour migration can serve as the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.Only for the period 2003 -remittances from Russia increased from $ 96.1 million to 164,7 million in 2010.Recent years have seen the departure of top managers in Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, which is of particular concern in the Republic (Zayats,2013) Labour migration from Kazakhstan to Russia according to the experts is reduced.Peaking in 2009, when at work in Russia went 11,2 thousand people, it amounted in 2011 to 4.5 thousand people.However, for 10 months of 2013 in Kazakhstan from abroad through system of remittances (PSD) came to 74.2 billion, or about $485 million, an increase compared with the same period of 2012 17.6%, which may indicate a new stage of growth of labour migration (Sadovskaya,2013; The living standards of population in Kazakhstan.Statistical compilation, 2013).
Labour migrants from Kazakhstan, as a rule, workers in construction 22%, manufacturing and mining industry by 20.8%, and in trade, transport and communications, agriculture, other economic activities.Kazakh specialists and workers are working in all Federal districts of Russia, but predominate in the Urals and Central, in particular, in the Khanty-Mansi region, Moscow and Moscow region.Many work in the border with Kazakhstan regions: Chelyabinsk, Novosibirsk, Samara, Omsk, Astrakhan, in the Altai region, because of long-standing economic ties established between enterprises and workers in Soviet times (Sadovskaya, 2014) The concern of experts is the lack of their qualified personnel.Kazakhstan is not yet in a state of its own resources to compensate the loss of human capital 1990-ies.Great hopes are being placed on the single market EEU.
In the flow of labor migrants in Russia remains constant contribution of Armenian citizens.According to the Federal migration service of the Russian Federation in 2013, Russia moved around 670 thousand Armenian citizens (20% more than in 2012).And according to the National statistical service of the Republic of Armenia 90% of persons traveling to Russia to enter the Russian Federation with the aim to find a job ("Armenia and the Customs Union: assessing the economic benefits of integration," 2013; "Armenia and the Eurasian integration: the final selection, or search for an optimum model?", 2015) The Russian labour market model demonstrates the employment of migrants from Armenia, typical for host countries.About 80% of them work in the fields of labour, unattractive to the Russians: in trade, construction, transport (Osadchaya,2013) Assessing the migration potential of the citizens of member States of the EAEC Russian specialists believe that migration exchange while maintaining the socio-economic and socio-political situation will be maintained at the same level.The best opportunities for the revival of the industrial potential of the country is the Republic of Belarus, as it saved the base material and engineering personnel.The conditions needed for the production of goods for the EEU in Belarus may be a need in the workforce.In this case, migration flows can be deployed in this way.

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the results of the study
According to a representative survey of Russians conducted by the Academy of Sciences in October 2014 -the Russians have a low potential spatial mobility.To the question "would you like to take the opportunity provided by the agreement between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on establishment of the Eurasian economic Union (EEU), which ensures freedom of movement of workers and to go in search of a permanent or temporary work outside their place of residence?"-expressed a desire to move to another region of Russia -14%, Belarus 5%, and in the Republic of Kazakhstan -3%, provided decent wages -58%, of housing -35%, assistance in acquiring home ownership -30%, the availability of public programs that promote the transfer -21%, warranties career growth -15%, professional (job) -14%.The relative majority (30% of the number of respondents who consider moving to another region or Republic) as the preferred called wage from 70 to 100 thousand rubles.
According to experts of Belarus (Hare,2013) migration processes there can skyrocket into force: implementation of plans to reduce the excessive number of employees of Belarusian enterprises, conservation gap in the wages of workers with equal skills between Russia and Belarus, the intensification of the crisis phenomena in the economy of Belarus.
According to Kazakh experts, the creation of the EEC in the future may have an impact: on the volume of migration in the direction of their increase; on the employment of people of Kazakhstan in Russia (Sadovskaya,2014).
In connection with the occurrence of Armenia to the EEU, the experts of the Republic of Armenia expect increasing migration flows from Armenia to Russia.
Thus, the vector of free movement of workers from the Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Armenia today is in the direction of Russia -the main countries receiving migrants from member States of the EAEC.In connection with the implementation plans for the formation of a common labor market, freedom of movement of workers, this trend may intensify.However, it is not surprising, because the main socio-economic indicators of living standards of Russians remain higher compared to the member States of the Eurasian economic Union.
However, it should be noted that labour migration within the Eurasian Union is not supported by all Russians.Studies show Academy of Sciences, public opinion in the responses to the question: "do you support labour migration within the Eurasian Union?" is divided approximately in half (Yes -16,3%, more likely than not -29,0%, No -17,3% Rather no than Yes -24,9%).Respondents believe that substantial numbers of migrant workers leads to a complication of ethno-cultural and ethno-social dispersion, creates a threat to the regional security and migration is the cause of rising crime in the country, inter-ethnic tensions.They fear eviction of local residents with jobs, the growth of social tension.
While these studies capture the buildup of negative relations between the population of the host society and coming, as well as the growing conflict.At the heart of these phenomena lies the difference norms, socio-cultural practices, phobias on both sides.You cannot say that the emergence of inter-ethnic tension is only associated with the establishment of chauvinism and cultural arrogance "old residents" Russians.

3.
The relevance of the study of migration risks from the point of view of the development of sociological knowledge associated with the development of the theory of social processes, theoretical understanding of contemporary models of adaptation and integration.

Migration policy in the context of a unified labor market
One of the main ideas of the creation of the EEC, which became operational with effect from 1 January 2015 Treaty on the Eurasian economic Union, is, in addition to the expansion of financial markets and market goods and services, the expansion of the labour market for the participating countries.For example, in the labour market will be abolished quotas for citizens of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia, and coming to work in another country, migrants from these States will be entitled to free medical care comparable to the volume of this assistance in your country.It is also expected that over time, migrant workers will receive a number of social rights identical with nationals of the state of employment.In the document in the area of labour migration fixed arrangement, under which citizens of the member countries have the right to work in any member state of the EEU.Treaty, the migrants do not need permission to work in the state of employment.
A single labor market in modern conditions can rightly be considered as one of the main sources of innovation development and competitive advantages of the EEU and will certainly broaden the ethnic and cultural diversity of the countries-participants of the EEU.However, the process of constructing a unified migration system, creating a single labour market, coupled with a number of social risks, among which we can mention the possibility of the manifestation of such negative social phenomena as disconnection, alienation, social inequality, ethnic and religious conflicts.
That is why initially should pay particular attention to the social orientation of migration policies within a single integration space.It should be noted that in this direction have already taken a number of measures.So according to the contract, labour migrants and their families within the EEU will be entitled to free ambulance (emergency forms) in the same manner and under the same conditions as the nationals of the state of employment.It is important to securing the rights of migrant children, living together with him in the territory of the state of employment, attendance and education in accordance with the laws of the state of employment.In addition, in the framework of the Agreement on UAES first agreement of the member States of the EAEC that in the state of employment are recognised educational documents issued by educational institutions of member States (Maksymchuk , 2014; The consequences of accession of Kyrgyzstan to the Customs Union and common economic space for labour market and human capital of the country, 2013).
At the same time, issues related to the pension provision of citizens on the General labour market was not fully resolved and will be regulated in a separate agreement to the basic contract.There is also no clear measures for integration of migrants in host societies of the countries participating in the EEU, the still unresolved issues related to the provision of appropriate housing conditions for migrant workers within the EEU, etc.
In the context of minimizing ethnic risks, it is important to study the problems associated with social differentiation and cultural diversity, influencing the development and implementation of socio-economic potential and social communication within the EEU to prevent ethnic conflicts, harmonization of interethnic relations, social cohesion, and use diversity as an innovative resource and competitive advantage EEU.
Undoubtedly, the formation of the labour market in terms of the Eurasian space is not simple and very contradictory to all participants of this process has its benefits and threats.As shown by preliminary analysis, vector free movement of labour from the Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Armenia today and in the future will be sent to Russia and that Russia will remain the main host country for migrants from member States of the EAEC.This will broaden the ethnic and cultural mosaic of the country, exacerbating ethnic and cultural contradictions, causing social tensions, ethnic confrontations, conflicts may lead to increased pressure on the regime opponents of liberalization of migration processes; and opponents of integration processes.There may be risks of social instability.

To the issue of intercultural communication and tolerance
In discourses about migrants often do not focus on ethnicity.We are talking about the discrepancy between norms of behavior, socio-cultural practices of the "old" and "new" Russians, including wearing clothes, using slang, food, leisure, moral norms.Deviations from normative behavior are perceived, as a threat to personal safety, become a marker of dividing people into friends and foes.The relevant provisions can be found in several works (Leskova , 2013;Mansurov , 2014;Osadchaya, 2013;Osadchaya, 2014;. Leskova and Raspopov, 2014;Yudina, 2005).
On the other hand, there is a hostile attitude of visitors to the local population.Some researchers note the hard, defiant desire, first of all, people from the North Caucasus, to assert its right to maintain in the new environment of specific norms of behavior that often leads to conflicts.
Strengthening conflict can be explained also by an increase among migrants proportion of young visitors under the age of 22 years, for social success, rely on social supports and seeks the competition.
Effective interaction between individuals belonging to different cultures, religions, having its own specific mentality and national character, achieved through the elaboration of the norms of inter-cultural cooperation and tolerance.In the process of intercultural interaction individuals seek understanding and agreement by a compromise between their own cultural values with the same values of the individual.
Increasingly, immigrants from less developed countries, being in a different environment, not trying to blend in with the environment, learn the language of their host country, to adopt its customs, lifestyle, culture.This is particularly evident in those cases, when it comes to the representatives of different civilizations and different faiths.In many countries, the formation of new ethnic minorities, who are clearly aware of their ethnic specificity, their interests and their ability to defend.Increased competition between natives and immigrants in various fields.As a consequence, the relationship between population, which is the titular nation and other communities is becoming more and more wary.Sometimes this suspicion turns into intolerance, which can lead to a social explosion.Under these conditions, the role and importance of regulation of migration processes, providing them with an organized, safe and non-confrontational nature.Adequate migration policy is needed, on the one hand, to minimize due to migration risks, and on the other to use a significant positive potential of migration for development of the state.(Vinogradova at al.,2014)To this we must add that the ability of national governments to properly regulate migratory movements is a prerequisite for successful international cooperation, without which the management of migration, as a multilateral process, it is impossible.

Conclusion 4.
Summarizing it can be stated that risk can be managed, i.e. to use different measures, which would allow a certain way to predict the occurrence of the risk situation and to take measures to reduce risk.To overcome social risks will only preventive and proactive measures of labour market regulation and social protection aimed at supporting domestic producers and workers, promote their competitiveness, strengthening the role of state and public organizations in providing social standards and their conformity with international standards.
Managing social risks in terms of education is going to need to adapt to international conditions based on a combination of government and market influence, stimulate competitive workforce, protect domestic producers, the social orientation of economic development.Need an effective form of influence on the economic and social interests of all stakeholders to achieve positive integration effect.
As world experience shows, the active migration policy, can contribute to the development of the state, must first be characterized by complexity, i.e. the unity of views on all migration flows and stages of the migration process, as well as the inclusion of migration issues in all other areas of political activity in the state.It should be transparent, based on a broad public dialogue, which alone can ensure public support; to be based on a thorough understanding of the migration situation in the country, accurate and reliable migration statistics and research; implemented on the basis of wellcoordinated activities of various government agencies, local authorities, social partners, non-governmental organizations.